How many times do you think you make a decision in a normal day? Ten times? Maybe a hundred times? Psychologists believe that the number of these decisions is much more than we think, something about a thousand times! But how skilled are we in making decisions? What can negatively affect our decision? be with us. In this article, we want to examine the answers to such questions.
Some of the decisions we make have a direct and significant impact on the course of our lives (such as deciding whether to go to college, get married, or have children) and others are less important (such as deciding what food to eat for lunch).
Some of these decisions have a positive effect on our lives (we choose courses that do us good) and others do not (the food we chose for lunch was not a good choice and stays in our hearts).
If we review the past and think about some of the bad decisions we have made, our thoughts become more or less on what exactly made us make that decision. Decisions that we can now clearly see and remember their negative and negative effects. For example, why did we marry someone who was the wrong choice for us? Why While we have four children, Did we buy that compact and expensive car? Last fall, when shopping These ugly skinny jeans Where were our senses?
We all more or less face questions like this. We will probably make bad decisions in the future, and sometimes this is inevitable, but if we can identify the procedure behind these sometimes irrational decisions, we can reduce the likelihood of making the wrong decision.
There are factors that lead to wrong decisions and knowing these factors will affect our way of thinking. With this new mindset, we can increase the likelihood of making the right decision.
In the following, we will examine the three main factors that lead to wrong decisions.
1. Mental shortcuts that can trap us
If we were to think about all the possible scenarios that would come with our decision, the number of things we could do during the day would be very small. Our brain relies on several cognitive shortcuts for quick and economical decision-making, known as “heuristic” (heuristic): a way of solving problems in which we learn from past experiences to find practical solutions. We reach the solution). These mental rules rely more on experience and allow us to judge quickly and in most cases correctly. But using these mental rules can have bad effects and lead to confused thinking and bad decisions.
“Bias anchoring” An example of this is the mental shortcut. Many people in various situations use the initial starting point as an anchor to reach the final value of something or their estimate after placing it. For example, consider a person who intends to buy a house. He knows that the price of a house in his neighborhood is about 350 million tomans. He will probably base himself on this price and bargain over the price of the house he intends to buy.
Amos Tuersky and Daniel Kahneman have conducted experiments to prove this mental law. They placed a wheel in front of the test participants with numbers from zero to one hundred. The wheel was rotated and each participant received a number; They were then asked how many countries on the African continent they thought belonged to the United Nations. The result was that in most cases, those who received a higher number of rounds guessed that a large number of the continent belonged to the United Nations; The opposite was also true for people who received lower numbers.
Now the important question that arises is how can we minimize the negative effects of these revelatory and biased decisions? According to the advice of experts, to do this, we must increase our awareness and knowledge of the existence of such decisions. Suppose, in bias anchoring, we can have a range of approximate estimates instead of relying on a particular estimate. For example, imagine that we want to buy a car. In this case, instead of considering the price range of a particular type of car, it is better to specify a range of reasonable prices for it. For example, if we know that a car with a long chassis with the size and facilities we want, is priced between approximately 150 to 200 million tomans, we can make a better and wiser decision when buying a car.
۲. The role of thoughtless comparisons in bad decisions
How do you know if you did not wear a hat to buy a tablet? Or, for example, how can you tell if the cost of buying a liter of milk was fair? Comparison is one of our main tools for decision making. The answer to these two questions goes back to the same comparison. You already know the usual price of a tablet or a liter of milk and compare it with the price you are told to make the best possible choice or decision. In fact, we use comparisons of different items to evaluate them.
But what if our comparisons are bad? Or what if the items we use as a benchmark for comparison are not good representations? For example, consider this question: are you ready to buy something 50,000 tomans cheaper? How many Bother yourself?
Suppose the sex price is 150,000 tomans and someone tells you that with 15 minutes more driving, you can buy the same sex for 50,000 tomans cheaper, you will most likely do so. But now suppose that the sex price is 1 million tomans; Are you still willing to pay more for the hassle of buying it for 50,000 tomans cheaper? Most people answer no to this question. Why? 50,000 tomans cheaper, whether in the case of the first sex or the second sex, is of equal value to us.
We get into bad comparisons in situations like this. For example, comparing the cost of payment with the cost that is saved, leads us to the conclusion that 50,000 tomans less is significant for the first sex and not for the second sex.
When it comes to decision-making, we often make quick comparisons and come to a final decision without really thinking about the options before us. If we do not want to make bad decisions, we must rely on the logic, style and weight of the options ahead.
3. The effect of high optimism on bad decisions
It may seem a little strange, but people have an innate optimism that can interfere with good and wise decisions. تالی شاروت In a very interesting study, he asked people how much do they know about the possibility of unpleasant events such as getting sick or being robbed? After each person made their own prediction, they were given the actual percentage of probability that such events would occur.
According to the results of this study, it seems that when people realize that the risk of bad things happening is less than they thought, they accept the new information and correct their predictions based on it. But on the other hand, if they realize that the risk of a bad event is greater than they expected, they ignore it and ignore the new information. Imagine a person who thinks that the risk of dying from smoking is 5%. Now, if we tell him that this risk is in fact close to 25%, he simply ignores it and stays true to his word.
Part of our over-optimism is rooted in the inherent belief that death is for our neighbors and that bad things happen only to others. When we are told that something unpleasant has happened to someone, we often look for mistakes that may have occurred to that person and caused that to happen to them. By blaming the victims of the accident, we are actually protecting ourselves from accepting the fact that we, like everyone else, are exposed to unpleasant events.
Tally Charlotte calls this characteristic “biased optimism,” or in other words, our tendency to overestimate the possibility of good events occurring and to underestimate the possibility of bad events occurring. He believes that this tendency is not necessarily rooted in the belief that supernatural and magical forces adapt to the circumstances, but rather that we have too much confidence in our ability to allow good things to happen.
So now how do you think this biased optimism will affect our decisions? As we may become overly optimistic about our abilities and vision for the future, we are increasingly likely to believe that our decisions are the best we can make. Experts may warn us about the dangers of smoking, inactivity, or overeating sugar, but our biased optimism leads us to believe that actions and habits like these are more likely to kill others and do not harm our health.
What do you think about this? Do you know of another factor that can make you make bad decisions? Let us know your questions, suggestions and comments.